Reading the trails
1 of 6 reported. Realized figures only.
Reading the trails
field notes
Four specifications decide what this system does: allocation, risk, architecture, and security. What follows is those documents, not a description of them. Where a page elsewhere on this site summarizes a rule, this is the rule it was summarizing.
Every number on this page is a published configuration value or a property of the allocation rule. None of it is a result, a projection, or a backtest.
01
allocation
How realized performance becomes a pheromone score, how that score decays, and how the colony turns pheromone into per-forager weights each epoch.
02
risk
How losses are bounded, how one agent is stopped from sinking the colony, how the insurance reserve is funded, and where the cushion ends.
03
architecture
The on-chain program, the isolated runtime each agent executes in, the indexer that publishes state, and the boundaries between them.
04
security
How the mechanism is defended from manipulation: settlement finality, oracle handling, signer checks, and the grinding surfaces that were closed.
the equations
tau(e+1) = max(0, (1 - rho) * tau(e) + D(e))D(e) = Q * tanh(perf(e) / s)perf(e) = r(e) - lambda * DD(e)H = ln 2 / -ln(1 - rho)symbols
decay schedule
| half-life | rho | weekly epochs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 epochs | 0.5000 | 1 week |
| 2 epochs | 0.2929 | 2 weeks |
| 4 epochsdefault | 0.1591 | about 1 month |
| 8 epochs | 0.0830 | about 2 months |
| 13 epochs | 0.0519 | about 3 months |
loss absorption
Steps two and three are the cushion. Step four is the honest limit of it, and it is printed at the same size as the rest.
Its allocated capital falls first. The loss is contained to the slice it was trusted with.
The seized portion reimburses the vault. Half of what is seized is burned, half is routed to the cache.
The reserve covers the residual, up to its balance. It targets four percent of value under colony.
Anything left is borne by depositors. This is where the cushion ends, and it is stated here rather than buried.
how the cushion fails
The cache is sized for uncorrelated failures. Its clear failure mode is correlated loss: a regime shock where many foragers lose at once can outrun both bonds and the reserve, and the fourth step of the waterfall is reached. The concentration cap, the asset whitelist, and the zero-leverage rule reduce that risk. Nothing removes it.
Agents lose money. Allocation is not a forecast.
every parameter
Each value is range-checked on-chain, so an out-of-range write cannot be stored even by an administrator. Economic changes pass through the same published process rather than appearing overnight.
| parameter | on-chain field | default | meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evaporation rate | rho_bps | 0.16 | Per-epoch forgetting. Half-life of about four epochs. |
| Epoch length | epoch_duration_secs | 7 days | Configurable between 1 and 30 days. |
| Deposit scale | deposit_scale_q | 1.0 | Largest change a single epoch can make to one trail. |
| Performance scale | perf_norm_s_bps | 10% | Risk-adjusted return at which the deposit saturates. |
| Risk aversion | risk_aversion_bps | 1.0x | Weight applied to the drawdown penalty. |
| Max weight | w_max_bps | 20% | No single forager may hold more than this share of the pool. |
| Drop threshold | w_drop_bps | 3% | Below this a forager is demoted and its capital withdrawn. |
| Scout budget | scout_budget_bps | 10% | Reserved for unproven agents. Never allocated by pheromone. |
| No-trade band | reband_band_bps | 2% | Weight moves smaller than this are not rebalanced. |
| Turnover cap | turnover_cap_bps | 25% | Ceiling on capital moved in any one epoch. |
| parameter | on-chain field | default | meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond ratio | bond_ratio_bps | 10% | Bond required as a fraction of allocated capital. |
| Bond haircut | bond_haircut_bps | 30% | Over-collateralization against $KOLNY price movement. |
| Probation drawdown | dd_probation_bps | 15% | Current drawdown that freezes new allocation. |
| Slash drawdown | dd_slash_bps | 30% | Current drawdown that seizes bond. |
| Epoch loss limit | epoch_loss_limit_bps | 10% | Realized loss in one epoch that pauses a forager. |
| Max leverage | max_leverage_x | 1x | Unlevered spot only. Borrowing is disallowed on-chain. |
| Single-asset cap | max_single_asset_bps | 40% | Most of one asset a sub-account may hold. |
| Slash burn share | slash_burn_bps | 50% | Half of every seized bond is burned; half funds the cache. |
| Cache accrual | cache_accrual_bps | 10% | Share of realized profit routed to the insurance cache. |
| Cache reserve target | cache_reserve_target_bps | 4% | Target cache balance as a fraction of value under colony. |
answered from the documents
Yes. The loss-absorption waterfall ends at depositor share value. A forager's own allocated capital falls first, then the seized part of its bond, then the risk cache, and anything still outstanding reduces what a share is worth.
Agents lose money. Allocation is not a forecast.
waterfall step 04 = depositor share valueNo. Only positions closed and settled before the epoch-close slot enter the score, and a backtest or a paper result never moves capital and never appears in a trust indicator.
The indexer is not reporting yet, so live figures render as -- rather than as a plausible-looking number or a zero. They will only ever carry settled on-chain results.
30d realized = --No. Unlevered spot only. Borrowing, margin, leveraged perpetual exposure, and collateralized loops are all disallowed, and the limit exists as an on-chain field so it can be audited rather than trusted.
Leverage turns a bad epoch into a liquidation, which is the one failure that isolation and bonds cannot contain.
max_leverage_x = 1xBecause every trail loses a fixed fraction of its strength each epoch whether or not anything went wrong. At the default rate an un-replenished trail is at half strength after about four epochs and near a tenth after about thirteen.
An edge in these markets is not stationary. A forager that was right three months ago and has posted nothing since is not evidence about next week, so the colony forgets it on a schedule published in advance.
tau(e+1) = max(0, (1 - rho) * tau(e) + D(e))Twenty percent. Any share above the cap is cut back and the excess is spread proportionally across the rest, repeating until nothing exceeds it.
That also means the pool is spread across at least five foragers by construction. It is the main systemic control on the allocation side, and it complements sub-account isolation rather than replacing it.
w_max = 20%A rule breach or two epochs of silence seizes the whole bond, because those are integrity failures rather than market losses. A loss past the drawdown threshold seizes a share proportional to how far past it went.
Half of whatever is seized is burned and half funds the risk cache. The forager is demoted, its remaining capital is unwound back to the vault, and it has to re-enter through the Scout Sandbox. The record stays on the roster permanently.
slash_burn_bps = 50% burned / 50% to cacheFrom a reserve that pheromone is not allowed to touch. A fixed ten percent of value under colony pays for small fixed-size scout tickets, so an agent with no record can build one without competing for the main pool.
Promotion needs four active epochs, twenty realized closed trades, and cumulative risk-adjusted performance at or above the bar. The pheromone it starts with is capped, so it cannot arrive at the top of the trail.
scout_budget_bps = 10%Correlated loss. The reserve is sized for foragers failing independently of each other; a regime shock in which many lose at once can outrun both the bonds and the reserve, and then the last step of the waterfall is reached.
The reserve ratio is public at all times, including when it is under target, so the remaining cushion is a number a depositor can read rather than something to assume.
cache_reserve_target_bps = 4% of value under colonyOnce per epoch, seven days by default. A target weight that moved less than the no-trade band is left alone, and the total capital moved in one epoch is capped, so a large intended move is approached over several epochs instead of in one sweep.
Rebalancing costs slippage and gas, and that cost is socialized across the vault. The band and the cap keep it small; they do not make it zero.
reband_band = 2% / turnover_cap = 25%Because a map with only the winners on it is a lie. A trail that evaporated to nothing stays drawn in gray, and a slashed forager stays on the roster with its history attached rather than being deleted from the list.
The same rule covers drawdown: it sits on the same line and at the same size as the return it belongs to, never folded into a tooltip.
indicators
--
foragers
Active agents holding a trail.
--
under colony
Total deposited capital.
--
30d realized
Settled, closed-trade return.
--
trails active
Trails above the drop threshold.
0.31
anchor
The program builds against anchor-lang and anchor-spl 0.31.1.
not yet deployed
program
Solana mainnet is the target. Nothing has been deployed there.
The program is not deployed and the indexer is not reporting, so these read as unavailable rather than as a number. They will only ever carry settled on-chain figures.
the rest of the colony